Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome (a bit early) Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready? I'll go with: SWIO: ' 14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones. '''Aus. Region: ' 15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones. 'S. Pac: ' 18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones. I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC) SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... ''Ryan1000'' 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : My bad for creating the betting pool.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC) : The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 92S.INVEST 92S.INVEST Another one near 90S.--Cy10-- 01:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC) Gone.--Cy10-- 20:21, February 4, 2012 (UTC) 12S.GIOVANNA 98S.INVEST There is an area of disturb weather that has a high chance of formation in a tropical cyclone here comes Giovanna I think that would be the name assign am I correct?Allanjeffs 02:24, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Yup.--Cy10-- 03:29, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 09 Well after weeks of inactivity, we have a depression. Expected to strengthen into an ITC before making landfall as an ITC. —12R. ''' 08:41, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna here she comes.Allanjeffs 12:48, February 9, 2012 (UTC) : I don't want to expect much out of this storm(Giovanna), but this thing just gives me bad feelings...Unlike Funso, this storm actually has a descent chance of making landfall as an ITC or VITC on MFR's scale. Madagascar has gotten better at preparations for tropical cyclones in rescent years, especially after Bingiza claimed only 10-15 lives last year. That was a great reduction from the 93 that perished after Ivan in 2008, which was a reduction from Gafilo's over 200 deaths in 2004, which was a reduction itself from the more than 1,000 that perished from the Eline-Gloria-Hudah trio in 2000. Hopefully Giovanna won't be very deadly for them, but it certainly bears watching. Ryan1000 14:53, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 12S It's here.--Cy10-- 21:04, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna Remember, the JTWC are not reliable on SHEM systems. —''12R. '' 21:18, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Looks okay for now, but it's still going to strengthen slowly but surely as it heads WSW. Madagascar may get a surprise, but hopefully not a bad one. Ryan1000 21:24, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna would probably strength to a cat 3 or 4 on our scale Madagascar should really pay attention to this one.Allanjeffs 21:51, February 9, 2012 (UTC) I think this storm will hit C1 or C2 intensity. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:26, February 9, 2012 (UTC) If I had to guess on this one's peak intensity, I would place this one's peak at 115-120 mph, possibly less, but still, an intense cyclone like that could spell big trouble for the folks in northeastern Madagascar. The death toll won't be extremely high because the're quite prepared for TC's, but still, they better keep their eyes out for this storm. Ryan1000 02:45, February 10, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna Now a Severe tropical storm.--Cy10-- 13:14, February 10, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna Now strongest storm of the season! —''12R. '' 18:50, February 10, 2012 (UTC) :Explosive intensification much? In fact, it really looks like Hurricane Wilma right now (vis). This is amazing folks! Fairly rare! (although Funso pulled a similar act 2 weeks ago). And damn, Giovanna is beautiful! It still has a few days out until land, so it should have peaked by then and weakened a bit... Yqt1001 20:27, February 10, 2012 (UTC) ::That being said, there's actually a good chance this could hit Madagascar as a cat. 4 or 5, like Gafilo did in 2004, which was the strongest SWIO storm on record at 895 mbars. I don't think Giovanna will quite reach Gafilo's strength, but it could have terribly similar impacts. This thing is not only taking off like there's no tomorrow, but it's a very large storm too. It's hundreds of miles across and it has the potential to engulf the entire island in gale-force winds. This is starting to look really scary for the folks over there. The people in eastern Madagascar need to leave NOW. Ryan1000 20:50, February 10, 2012 (UTC) ::I knew she would strength in a formidable storm and I have only went half a day without internet and see how Giovanna took that time to strength if I was in Madagascar I weould prepare for this storm.btw in the first betting pools I put Giovanna as the strongest of the season I would have win. Allanjeffs 03:56, February 11, 2012 (UTC) :::Everyone would. Giovanna is going through a EWRC. --Cy10-- 04:08, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Yep - Giovanna has began to weaken and is now down to 945 hPa. —''12R. '' 09:13, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Giovanna Down...down...down...down. —''12R. '' 14:03, February 11, 2012 (UTC) That was quite an amazing intensification! Andrew444TalkBlog 14:06, February 11, 2012 (UTC) As fast as it strengthened, it powered down even quicker. That being said, it won't be as bad as I thought. Giovanna is still a very dangerous storm because it's so big, but now that it's not as strong, damage will be much less severe than it otherwise could have. Ryan1000 14:27, February 11, 2012 (UTC) ::However, remember that Giovanna should strengthen back into an ITC again shortly. Giovanna could also make landfall on Mozambique as a MTS or STS. —''12R. '' 14:47, February 11, 2012 (UTC) ::The water near Mozambique are hot so she could strength again to a Very Intense tropical cyclone.Allanjeffs 15:12, February 11, 2012 (UTC) :::That may be a bad thing for them, but it's tough for a storm to survive the high, rough mountains of Madagascar or other places like Hispaniola. Eline of 2000 was an unusual exeption. It made landfall in Madagascar as only a category 1 storm, and barely emerged off of the west coast of the island as a TD, but when it came into the Mozambique channel, it exploded into a 135 mph C4 and decimated Mozambique, killing over 1,000 people. Storms like that are extremely rare in the SWIO and Eline was the worst storm to hit Mozambique in over 50 years. By contrast, Ivan of 2008 hit Madagascar as a 135 mph C4 and it died after it emerged off of the island, while Eline survived. The size of the storm is one of the key factors to surviving a mountainous land. If a storm with a tiny circulation goes over a mountainous terrain, it will die out very rapidly. If it has a large circulation, it has a better chance of survival. Maybe Eline was big enough to survive Madagascar when it did hit them, and the same could apply to Giovanna, since it's also a massive cyclone. But preperations have changed significantly since Eline, and the death toll from tropical cyclones in the SWIO has dropped in rescent years. Even if Giovanna is strong when it makes landfall, the death toll will be reduced due to preparations, and that's all that really matters. The only way this storm will be deadly is if the folks in Madagascar and Mozambique don't get out of harm's way. The Philipines learned that lesson after Washi last December. Ryan1000 16:31, February 11, 2012 (UTC) :::In the forecast Giovanna is forecast to make landfall in southern Mozambique which is rare.Allanjeffs 23:00, February 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::And that make it more interesting two storms that make landfall in southern Mozambique.Allanjeffs 02:55, February 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::Not really. Dando made landfall in Southern Mozambique earlier this year. --Cy10-- 00:05, February 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::Here's a synopsis of Giovanna's predicted future: She reintensifies into a VITC, weakens to a TC, hits Madagascar at that intensity, degenerates into a weak low-pressure area, then restrengthens to a STS. Andrew444TalkBlog 00:50, February 12, 2012 (UTC) No longer forecast to regain ITC status, and no longer forecast to become a STS in the Mozambique Channel. —''12R. '' 10:33, February 12, 2012 (UTC) It still stands at category 3 strength though, but now it's only forecast to make landfall as a 2 and reemerge off of Madagascar as a TS. It has a chance to regenerate in the Mozambique Channel, but I won't count on that just yet. And Cy10, Dando did hit Southern Mozambique earlier this year, but as Andrew said, the last time a storm hit the Maputo area before Dando was in 1984, so it's not really common either way. Favio of 2007 was also pretty close. Ryan1000 14:29, February 12, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna is now strengthening very quickly. IR IR_BW Pretty and all, but not the best time for it to explode again. Yqt1001 18:11, February 12, 2012 (UTC) She is really beautiful but if she explode Madagascar and even Mozambique will have problems with this beauty.Allanjeffs 19:29, February 12, 2012 (UTC) Giovanna is probable a cat 4 right now ans it looks like she is strengthening as we speak.Allanjeffs 23:41, February 12, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (2nd time) Up....up....up....up...--Cy10-- 02:09, February 13, 2012 (UTC) She just need 15mph more to reach cat 5 if she was in the ocean I will be cheerleading to happen but because is going to strike land I am praying to weaken before it make landfall a note in here is that Giovanna would make landfall at the same day as Bingiza.Allanjeffs 02:31, February 13, 2012 (UTC) : Giovanna is a very agressive storm right now, but per Jeffmaster's latest blog post, he anticipates Giovanna to undergo an ERC as it makes landfall tonight, but he still expects it to make landfall as a category 3 with winds of up to 125 mph. However, if Giovanna undergoes an ERC, the hurricane-force wind field will be expanded, so it has a better chance of surviving Madagascar. The wind shear near Mozambique is lighter than it was yesterday too, so Giovanna could make landfall in Mozambique as a stronger storm than it is currently indicated. Hopefully officials in Madagascar have gotten everyone out of harm's way, otherwise this storm will be a very deadly storm. Ryan1000 15:01, February 13, 2012 (UTC) : Giovanna have make landfall with an estimate peak of 140mph I think.Allanjeffs 22:56, February 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Landfall with 145mph winds, not 140mph. Yqt1001 23:20, February 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Well, Giovanna is now the strongest storm of the 2011-12 SWIO season (I think). Andrew444TalkBlog 00:04, February 14, 2012 (UTC) :::Yes, in pressure and winds, Giovanna is now the strongest storm of 2012 thus far, and for the SWIO. She also hit Madagascar at peak strength, so there's a good chance it could proceed into Mozambique as at least a cat. 1. If Eline was able to survive Madagascar, Giovanna probrably will too. Hopefully the atmospheric conditions will not be in Giovanna's favor when it does leave Madagascar, otherwise this storm could be more destructive than Eline when it proceeds into Mozambique. Ryan1000 02:24, February 14, 2012 (UTC) ::::It's starting to power down now, to 110 mph, but it's a large, expansive storm and it's causing massive flooding in Madagascar as we speak. It is currently only forecast to stay a TS in the Mozambique channel, but that's not certain as of yet. Ryan1000 10:34, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Overland Depression Giovanna Weakening now... expected to strengthen back into a TC in MC —''12R. '' 19:42, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Giovanna Continuing to strengthen as it moves into warmer seas. —''12R. '' 11:20, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Expected to become a hurricane over the next few days, but it could turn south before making landfall in Mozambique. Ryan1000 11:40, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna It's back up to a TS, but no longer forecast to be a hurricane. Mozambique still better watch out for this one though. Ryan1000 23:46, February 15, 2012 (UTC) 10R.NONAME TCFA.--Cy10-- 02:07, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical storm 13S Now a tropical storm by JTWC, though it hasn't been named Hilwa yet. Probrably will be later today. Ryan1000 10:36, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10 Now a TD. —''12R. '' 12:30, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Well it is now getting less organized as we speak and it has attained peak intensity. Maybe the JTWC were wrong to take it up to C2? —''12R. '' 19:43, February 14, 2012 (UTC) May intensify later I would not take it out so fast as it may intensify later.Allanjeffs 23:57, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Some significant change in the forecast. Was meant to weaken into a disturbance and stay that for the whole existence, however, it is now expected to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm, then weaken back into a tropical depression, then strengthen back into a tropical storm with 40 kt. —''12R. '' 11:24, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Australian Region 12U.JASMINE 95P.INVEST TCFA...and it's heading toward SPAC. --Cy10-- 21:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC) Finally...maybe a storm there! 02:40, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Well - Nadi actually say that when it enters the SPAC, it will be a strong depression or a cyclone. —''12R. '' 12:29, February 3, 2012 (UTC) We also have newly form Tropical Disturbance 10 .Allanjeffs 12:48, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 10P Expected to get to 65 kts in the SPAC. —''12R. '' 09:18, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Straight in there with 50 mph. —''12R. '' 13:30, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Yeah!!! its strengthening rapidly maybe a peak f cat 2 or 3 after it enter the high shear of the south pacific basin.Allanjeffs 14:32, February 4, 2012 (UTC) I thought this one would develop, but the South Pacific still hasn't had any storms form there yet, and if Jasmine becomes a strong major cyclone (which currently seems unlikely), it could be a problem for the folks in the Solomon Islands or New Caledonia in the next few days. It's also expected to head due east or slightly east-northeast, which is rare for a storm in this area. Ryan1000 17:37, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Now a C2.--Cy10-- 03:50, February 5, 2012 (UTC) and strengthening could peak at 3 or 4 before it start weakening. Allanjeffs 15:01, February 5, 2012 (UTC) I'd like to see Jasmine become a severe tropical cyclone. Andrew444TalkBlog 22:31, February 5, 2012 (UTC) ::: So you want to see devastation across some SPAC islands? —''12R. '' 22:40, February 5, 2012 (UTC) ::: No. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:21, February 5, 2012 (UTC) VMS now showing it going to the south of the islands with 70 kt wind. —''12R. '' 01:32, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Yep, Nadi has it making landfall on New Caledonia as a Cat 3. —''12R. '' 08:40, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Hope she not make landfall at that strength.Allanjeffs 12:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Now in the SPAC (FYI, for simplicity, don't move it into the SPAC bit of the forum). The official track map from Nadi shows it passing between Vanuatu and New Caledonia as a Cat 3. —''12R. '' 15:34, February 6, 2012 (UTC) :Just as Jasmine is about to make landfall, she appears to be entering an RI phase... [Link] 65kts as of the latest JTWC update, but not for long. Yqt1001 22:02, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine And its here. —''12R. '' 02:00, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Jasmine looks pretty impressive. It looks like it's going to pass between New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands, so damage should hopefully be minimized, even if it does become a category 3 or 4 storm. Ryan1000 02:07, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Officially the strongest of the season.Allanjeffs 04:21, February 7, 2012 (UTC) And we now have a Category 4 cyclone! —''12R. '' 12:30, February 7, 2012 (UTC) This thing looks impressive! And Kiewii, do you mean Category 4 on the AUS scale or the SSHS? Andrew444TalkBlog 22:46, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Well to find out, check the latest Nadi advisory and the latest JTWC advisory. —''12R. '' 23:19, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Jasmine's small, but she's pretty agressive-looking. Fortunately, she's small enough to miss the Solomon Islands and it missed New Caledonia as well, so damage, if any, will be minimal. But this was impressive. After 4 months of being in a coma, the SPac has finally woke up. Ryan1000 23:46, February 7, 2012 (UTC) ::: Well Jasmine didn't go anywhere near the Solomon Islands. —''12R. '' 23:56, February 7, 2012 (UTC) ::: Bombing out. 942 mb pressure. Andrew444TalkBlog 12:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC) ::::: Now a C4 on AUS and SSHS scales.--Cy10-- 13:13, February 8, 2012 (UTC) ::::: Technically Ryan the SPac didn`t produce Jasmine so the SPac woke up when Cyril form and now that is out we are again coming into a coma its true that Jasmine is in there for now but when she dies there is not going to be anything more.Allanjeffs 20:39, February 8, 2012 (UTC) :::::: There's a good chance this year could tie or break the record set by last year's SWIO season as the least active SHem season ever, but yeah, other than Jasmine, which was really a crossover (like Yasi last year), the rest of the SHem is dead. Ryan1000 03:49, February 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::::: Now Jasmine is inside TCWC Wellington AoR.--Cy10-- 02:57, February 10, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (2nd time) Weakening now. Just to point out, the VMS had this peaking at 931 mb. —''12R. '' 19:37, February 10, 2012 (UTC) It's starting to fall apart, but she's not out yet. She's expected to continue weakening though, and I'd place her death date from tomorrow to Sunday. I think Giovanna's going to be the big story over the next few days. Ryan1000 20:59, February 10, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (2nd time) Nothing can stop her! (well for at least a few more days) - Will move back into Nadi's responsibility tomorrow afternoon. —''12R. '' 09:22, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Really, Jasmine? You have to turn back northeast and go on? Ah well. She's postponing her fate, but she won't survive past this Wendsday or Thursday. Still a C2, it's not out yet. Ryan1000 16:34, February 11, 2012 (UTC) She really wants attention because we were looking at Giovanna yesterday she didn`t want to be left out so she pulls this surprise to us but Ithink it will not be for long.Allanjeffs 18:17, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (3rd time) Moving faster than expected, now back in Nadi AoR. —''12R. '' 18:43, February 11, 2012 (UTC) This thing is going on a intensity roller coaster! Andrew444TalkBlog 13:36, February 12, 2012 (UTC) :Not really. Nadi said it was a Severe Tropical Cyclone again by mistake. —''12R. '' 14:39, February 12, 2012 (UTC) Well NIWA says that Jasmine reached C5 status on the Aussie scale. —''12R. '' 01:59, February 13, 2012 (UTC) Really that is unexpect it by my part.Allanjeffs 02:34, February 13, 2012 (UTC) Nothing can stop her! Jasmine is strengthening again... down from 990 mb to 987 mb and from 40 kts to 45 kts 10-min. —''12R. '' 12:33, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Jasmine has a long way to go to catch up to Rewa's record of 28 days from the 1993-1994 season, but still, I never expected it to go on for this long. Two weeks is still impressive, and it could go on for even longer than that. Ryan1000 11:49, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Big fail in forecasting there, Advisory 24 had it becoming a C2 again, however, the latest advisory has it becoming a TD within 24 hours. Just to note that 85 tropical cyclone warnings have been issued on Jasmine! —''12R. '' 12:13, February 15, 2012 (UTC) : Last advisory by JTWC... :| .--Cy10-- 21:05, February 15, 2012 (UTC) :: Yup. I wonder when Nadi will stop issuing advisories as well? 22:52, February 15, 2012 (UTC) :::When it moves south of 25°S. —''12R. '' 23:00, February 15, 2012 (UTC) 13S.NONAME Near Indonesia.--Cy10-- 04:19, February 11, 2012 (UTC) Moving toward SWIO basin and with a TCFA.--Cy10-- 01:58, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Now 13S.--Cy10-- 13:14, February 14, 2012 (UTC) South Pacific Region 10F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 10F And another one...--Cy10-- 13:11, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Its not a depression. RSMC Nadi's TDS' supersede the 3-day outlook. —''12R. '' 15:31, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Yeah its a disturbance not a depression.Allanjeffs 21:03, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Exactly Allan, as 10F's final advisory has just been issued. —''12R. '' 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10F Now its a depression. —''12R. '' 13:29, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Although the advisory says 25 kts, the gale warning says 35 kts for 10F. This is exactly what happened with 04F too. So this means 04F should have been Cyril and 10F should be Daphne. (Not likely to happen anyways). —''12R. '' 12:08, February 5, 2012 (UTC) And after they reach td status they start weakening right away. Allanjeffs 17:00, February 5, 2012 (UTC) : Gone.--Cy10-- 20:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC) 11F.CYRIL Tropical Disturbance 11F New one here, most likely to be dumped in the bin soon. —''12R. '' 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Like all of the past disturbances of this year. Allanjeffs 23:25, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11F Potential for this depression to become a tropical cyclone is low. —''12R. '' 01:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC) 96P.INVEST Now 96P. —''12R. '' 02:45, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cyril And its the first homegrown tropical cyclone of the season. —''12R. '' 19:43, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Finally a name storm in this Basin btw Cyril is a male name or female? Allanjeffs 20:39, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Cyril is a male name Allan. Being the latest first storm in the SPac on record, at best, this basin will get to 3-4 storms in total from now on out, excluding Jasmine. Even so, Cyril is only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but based on the looks of this tiny little storm, I wouldn't be surprised if Cyril could explode up to cat 1 or 2 strength before dying out. Ryan1000 22:15, February 6, 2012 (UTC) So we got Cyril after all. Still, I don't see much coming from him. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC) It's heading out to sea. Cyril is probably a fish.--Cy10-- 23:20, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Probable will only peak as a weak moderate tropical storm.Allanjeffs 23:56, February 6, 2012 (UTC) It has reached C2 strengh. Now it should be weakening.--Cy10-- 13:17, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Down to a C1 and has moved into TCWC Wellington's AoR. —''12R. '' 19:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Ex-TC Cyril Extratropicale —''12R. '' 19:37, February 8, 2012 (UTC) Down and out.Allanjeffs 20:36, February 8, 2012 (UTC) 13F.NONAME Tropical Depression 13F And who thinks this will become Daphne? —''12R. '' 12:34, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Maybe. Depends on how conditions will turn out. 21:55, February 14, 2012 (UTC) I don`t think so.Allanjeffs 21:43, February 15, 2012 (UTC) It's not gonna develop, it's being sheared up now. BTW, the Hall of Fame elections are taking place. If you want to vote on your picks from Eric's list of 2012's hall of famers, or make new suggestions for 2012, go there. Ryan1000 23:44, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: AUS: *Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted. *Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one? *Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts. *Iggy - <5% - Probably not. *Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count. SPAC: *Cyril - 0% - No. --Cy10-- 00:27, February 9, 2012 (UTC) Mine: AUS: #Fina - 0% - No impact. #Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment? #Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad. #Iggy - 10% - No. #Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area. SPAC: #Cyril - 0% - No impact. Andrew444TalkBlog 22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. —''13R. '' 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?--Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444TalkBlog 22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Here's the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336578.--Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC) Time for mine. #Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail #Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season #Heidi: 5% - Meh #Iggy: 3% #Jasmine: 15% - Caused record breaking flooding in NSW and QLD —''12R. '' 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC) My turn : 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ? : 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going. : 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him. : 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names. : 5 Jasmine:TBK : Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Might as well: Australia: *Fina - 0% - Nope. *Grant - 23% - Australia has a common track record, but I still don't think Grant should be retired, especially in comparison to what they've seen in the past. *Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant. *Iggy - 4% - Damage, if any, wasn't that bad for Australia. *Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength. South Pacific: *Cyril - 0% - Fishie. Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)